Quarterly U.S. Economic Forecasts with Probablity of Recession (Q4 2019 – Q1 2022 ) – Courtesy of Bloomberg LP Yearly U.S. Economic Forecasts with Probability of Recession (2013 – 2022) – Courtesy of Bloomberg LP Profit Report! Alex’s Big Surprises 2020 Biggest Surprises: 1) Negative Prices for Oil 2) Shutdowns 3) Resurgence of Bitcoin (it didn’t die?!) 4) Housing Rates …

What were the 10 biggest financial surprises of 2020? What are the financial forecasts for 2021? What are the biggest potential surprises of 2021? If Cash Rates are zero, what happens to the Financial Markets? Could U.S. Treasury and Money Market Rates go negative in the U.S.? What traditional allocations are in the most danger of disappointment longer term? What …

• How did the Financial Markets react to the election? • Were the markets reacting more to the Pfizer announcement? • How does Pfizer’s announcement of a 90% effective vaccine change the picture for 2021? • How many other vaccines and treatments are coming over the next 6 months? • Why are the markets ignoring the current pandemic resurgence? • …

• How far can the Bio-Medical stocks run based upon valuations? • What will the markets look like when the Coronavirus crisis is over? • What is the timeline for Operation Warp Speed? • Is there a potential energy shortage after COVID-19 is contained? • Why is there a “Cash Flow Panic” unfolding for 2021 and how could we profit? …

• What happens when investors are no longer focused on the election? • What were the major distortions going into the election? • What will the Markets look like when the Coronavirus crisis is over? • Does distorted Performance correct itself? • Does Valuation matter anymore? • What does Net Present Value of future cash flows tell us about 2021 …

• Are the Financial Markets indicating comfort with either election outcome? • Where does all this stimulus money come from? • With Interest Rates at ZERO, what will the big money buy in 2021? • What is a “Cash Flow Panic?” • Where is the money flowing now? • What are the dangers now to “COVID immune” tech stocks? • …

2021 Questions: • If Cash Rates are zero, where does the money flow? • If COVID-19 is contained in 2021, what happens to different investment choices? • Biden administration policies? • Trump administration policies? • What happens after the U.S. Government’s debt reaches $30 Trillion and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reaches $10 Trillion? Insightful answers delivered in this week’s …

Financial markets this week traded remarkably in sync with Washington’s statements regarding stimulus and Federal Reserve activity. Important implications for investors! *Are Market Indexes and an Economic Recovery dependent upon artificial stimulation and Why? *What does PIMCO say about 3 to 5 year expectations? *What has the Federal Reserve done so far? *What have Congress and the President done so …

Markets plunged instantly upon the tweet by President Trump of a positive COVID-19 diagnosis. Since both the UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Brazil’s President Bolsonaro recovered from a positive diagnosis, markets held well above the lows set last month. With the nation obsessed with election headlines and the Washington cat fight, investors are best served with a focus on …

Any hope of a new, and much needed, comprehensive Infrastructure plan to be drafted for discussion with the newly elected, re-elected Congress and President vanished over the weekend turning Washington into a cat fight with hundreds of angry felines. Any attempt to restore order would likely result in scratches, bites, and a rabies shot. Dow Jones Industrial Average (Year to …