Markets plunged instantly upon the tweet by President Trump of a positive COVID-19 diagnosis. Since both the UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Brazil’s President Bolsonaro recovered from a positive diagnosis, markets held well above the lows set last month.
With the nation obsessed with election headlines and the Washington cat fight, investors are best served with a focus on what is unfolding in the economy and financial markets.
-What is more important than the election for investors?
-What are the possible outcomes for COVID-19 in 2021?
-How is the economy doing right now and how is today different from predictions?
-What surprise reports are coming from Q3 results?
-How would a Biden or Trump administration impact 2021?
-Why was Residential Real Estate immune from the recession?
-What do European interest rates tell us about potential future gains in the Bond Market?
-What is Global Compression and what does it mean in 2021?
Any hope of a new, and much needed, comprehensive Infrastructure plan to be drafted for discussion with the newly elected, re-elected Congress and President vanished over the weekend turning Washington into a cat fight with hundreds of angry felines. Any attempt to restore order would likely result in scratches, bites, and a rabies shot.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (Year to Date) 
– Courtesy of Bloomberg LP
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Quarterly Earning Estimates (10/02/2017 – 10/02/2020) 
– Courtesy of Bloomberg LP
Exchange Trade Fund Flows (10/02/2020)
– Courtesy of Bloomberg LP
Yearly U.S. Economic Actual & Estimated Forecasts w/ Probability of Recession (2013 – 2022)
– Courtesy of Bloomberg LP
Quarterly U.S. Economic Actual & Estimated Forecasts w/ Probability of Recession (4th Qtr. 2019 – 1st Qtr. 2022)
– Courtesy of Bloomberg LP
U.S. Employment Total in Labor Force NSA (10/14/2014 – 09/30/2020)
– Courtesy of Bloomberg LP
Natural Gas Spot Price (3 Years)
– Courtesy of Bloomberg LP
SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. & Sunoco LP (Year to Date)
– Courtesy of Bloomberg LP
MAC Global Solar Energy Index (Year to Date)
– Courtesy of Bloomberg LP
Headline Round Up!
*The Fastest Recovery in History? Q3 and Q4 Forecasts for Profits and The Economy.
*Net New Jobs Bring Total Employed to about 148 Million vs 159 Million Peak.
*Big Gains for North Texas Home Prices with 3 Month Acceleration. National Buying Rush!
*New York’s Deep Real Estate Recession. Offices Empty and International Demand Extinguished. 40% Jump in Bankruptcies with Riots and Continued Shut- Downs.
*Inflation Already Here?
*COVID-19 Cocktails? Regeneron’s Rapid Reduction.
*Value Stocks Outperforming Growth
*JPMorgan Trading Desk – “Crime Ring?”
*Stock Up on Cabernet: Wildfires Devastate Wine Industry. Alex, is there a trading market for this?
*California Power Shortages?
*Natural Gas Rally!
*Conoco Philips: Oil Demand Will Return and Grow. Share Buybacks Resumed!
*Solar Comes of Age!
Profit Report!
*Research Round Up!
*Emerging Market Bond Update!
*Biden Tax Plan? Michael Kitces details.
*Trump Tax Plan?
*This Week’s Money Flow and Sector Performance Updates.
