Based upon the Stock Traders Almanac, most investors are surprised to learn that September is actually the most volatile month of the year based upon historical data. Surprising to most based, in part, on the October crashes of 1929 and 1987.
Eddie Murphy in his famous movie Trading Places explained the autumn corrective tendencies with anxiety surrounding holiday shopping for the kids who want a “GI Joe with the kung fu grip.”
PappaDean worked construction in Houston and drove an ambulance at night for the privilege of a room at the funeral home. A hurricane storm and flooding caused a turbulent night of rescues. As he arrived back at the room, the sky cleared, the sun came out brightly, and the perimeter of the sky was dark as night. He has lived through the eye of the storm literally while on duty. This also applies to serving clients for 50 years in the financial markets here in Dallas.
Remarkable stability in the financial markets over the past few months is unprecedented. Dow 18000, Oil $45, and the 30 Year US Treasury stable near 2 1/3% are remarkable. Is stability the market impact of the election and debate process? This is a bizarre correlation.
Extended summer calm or a long term eye of the hurricane? This week’s program delivers possible outcomes with real strategies. Did the FOMC intercede to PUSH the T-Bill rate back up to the Fed Funds target of .25% and/or did banks “play the fed funds market” arbitrage using T-Bill variance from the target rate. Bank of PappaDean, and Bank of Spencer answer the question: Why does the T-Bill follow the fed funds rate? Example: at 35 basis points banks can borrow at 25 basis points and buy the T-Bill with a profit margin. If the rate recently dropped below 25 basis points to 16 points the estimated gain on a $100,000,000 90 day would be approximately $47,500 if the position was sold and the inter-bank loan paid back. This type of money flow with bank reserves likely explains the T-Bill returning to the ¼% Fed Funds rate base target.
*Election Impact? Q3 2016 Remarkable Stability in Equity Prices, Oil, and Rates.
*Allergan Buying Spree! 3rd Acquisition in Under a Month! Going Green: 3 More US Headquarters Moving to Ireland.
*Beer Not Here Either! Foreign Owned Bud and Miller Mega Merger.
*OPEC Tries to Rally Oil Prices: Another Self Serving Head Fake?
*Are Municipal Bonds Too Expensive?
*India’s Economy Leads with 7% Growth! Why? Letting States Keep Their Own Money!
*Housing Boom Update: How Long Will it Last? Dallas’ Amazing 90 Day Appreciation!
“It is better to start with plan than end in a panic!” – Spencer McGowan
*Dallas Police and Fire Pension Needs a Rescue!
What does it tell us about our own retirement planning?
*Q3 2016 is History!
What do the performance numbers tell us about 2017?
*Voting with Their Feet!
What are the dangers as companies leave the US due to taxation and regulation?
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